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an explainer on the mathematics of chance

Mathematics · Updated 17 August 2026

Why the house edge decides every long game

The advantage a gambling game holds is not luck, a streak or a mood. It is a fixed fraction of every stake, written into the payout terms before anyone plays.

Line chart showing expected bankroll falling steadily as the number of bets rises
Expected bankroll against number of bets. The line is straight because each bet subtracts the same fraction of the amount staked.

Read the full guide on the house edge

All guides, most recently revised first

  1. Line chart showing expected bankroll falling steadily as the number of bets rises

    Mathematics · Updated 17 August 2026

    Why the house edge decides every long game

    A fixed fraction of every stake, set by paying less than true odds.

  2. A zero to one scale with the probabilities one sixth and one half marked

    Mathematics · Updated 17 August 2026

    Probability, odds and expected value

    Fractional, decimal and implied probability, and how expectation is computed.

  3. A circle divided into thirty-seven equal pockets with one pocket shaded

    Games · Updated 17 August 2026

    Roulette: a fixed edge built into the wheel

    One or two extra pockets set an edge that every bet on the cloth shares.

  4. Bar chart showing one way to make two, six ways to make seven and one way to make twelve

    Games · Updated 17 August 2026

    Dice: the oldest randomiser

    The thirty-six outcomes of two dice, and the pass line derived from them.

  5. Four playing cards drawn as flat outlines, one for each suit

    Games · Updated 17 August 2026

    Cards: where skill changes the arithmetic

    Dependent draws, combinatorics of 52 cards and the limits of skill.

  6. Three vertical reel strips with a dashed payline drawn across the middle row

    Games · Updated 17 August 2026

    Slot machines: from reels to number generators

    Weighted stops, virtual reels and what a return figure actually means.

  7. Six numbered balls above a dense field of small marks standing for all possible selections

    Games · Updated 17 August 2026

    Lotteries: the arithmetic of very long odds

    Combinations, prize-fund share, rollovers and shared jackpots.

  8. Two priced bars whose combined length passes a dashed hundred per cent line

    Games · Updated 17 August 2026

    Betting markets, prices and the overround

    Converting prices to probabilities and reading the margin in a book.

  9. A line with five marked points labelled dice, cards, probability, lotteries and licensing

    History · Updated 17 August 2026

    A short history of games of chance

    Astragali to cards to the seventeenth-century correspondence that started probability.

  10. A five-row paytable schematic with one row outlined

    Design · Updated 17 August 2026

    How games of chance are designed

    Paytables set below true odds, hit frequency and the volatility trade-off.

  11. An outlined document with ruled lines and a marked licence block

    Regulation · Updated 17 August 2026

    How regulation of the industry developed

    From prohibition to licensing, testing regimes and published return figures.

  12. A grid of letter tiles standing for an alphabetical index of terms

    Glossary · Updated 17 August 2026

    Glossary of terms

    Twenty-four defined terms with links into the guide that develops each.

  13. A bordered key-result plate showing a result above the arithmetic that produces it

    Method · Updated 17 August 2026

    How these guides are written

    Scope, derivation, and what this site deliberately does not do.

Seven common bets, and what each keeps

Each row is derived from the payout terms alone. The last column shows the arithmetic.

Expected return and house edge derived from payout terms
BetPayout termsExpected returnHouse edgeArithmetic
Single-zero roulette, straight35 to 1, 1 of 370.97302.70%36/37
Double-zero roulette, straight35 to 1, 1 of 380.94745.26%36/38
Coin toss at evens1 to 1, 1 of 21.00000.00%2 x 1/2
Craps pass line1 to 1, p = 244/4950.98591.41%2 x 244/495
Lottery, 6 from 49 jackpotshare of prize fundset by fund sharelarge1 in 13,983,816
Two-way market at 10/11 each10 to 11 both sides0.95454.55%1/1.0476
Machine stating 96% returndeclared paytable0.96004.00%1 - 0.96

How these guides are worked out

Every figure on this site is derived from the stated rules of the game it describes, using elementary probability, and the arithmetic is printed beside the result so that a reader can check it. No gambling company, product or offer is named, rated or linked anywhere on the site, and nothing here is certified or assessed. These guides explain how the games work and why the arithmetic favours whoever sets the terms; they do not explain how to play, and they treat gambling as a subject rather than an activity to take up.

Read the full method note